Nebius Group — Blitz Index 59 (C)
Prepaid blitz — customers fund the buildout. Highest of the neo-cloud trio.
Confidence: High · Nasdaq-100 · Category: ai-infra
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 20 / 25 | Q2 2026 $582.3M (+454% YoY); AI cloud +514%; ARR $1.9B to $3.0B in one quarter |
| B · Moat | 36 / 60 | MSFT $19.4B + Meta $12B contracts; 170MW to 1GW to 5GW power pipeline |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Hyperscalers buying from neo-cloud — structural inversion; $40B+ backlog lock-in |
| D · BlitzFailing | −8 | Pro forma debt ~$13.5B (10x TTM); FY2026 capex $20-25B (7x guidance) |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 60 · Speed 80 · Creative 73.
Watch item
Gates: G1 pass · G2 pass (estimated). Neo-cloud trio: NBIS 59 > IREN 56 > CRWV 55. 6 below threshold — first-ever score.
Strengths
- AI cloud +514% YoY (SEC); ARR $1.9B to $3.0B in a single quarter (+598% YoY)
- $40B+ backlog (~30x TTM) + $9B+ 2026 prepayments — demand visibility and funding solved together
- Adj. EBITDA margin 41% (Q2), AI cloud segment 50% — fastest margin turnaround of the trio
- Nvidia $2B investment + Reference Platform partner + Vera Rubin first validation
Concerns
- Customer concentration: MSFT + Meta are most of the $40B+ backlog — two decisions from disruption
- Pro forma debt ~$13.5B (10x TTM) + FY2026 capex $20-25B — sold contracts, still building
- -13% on August converts announcement — dilution sensitivity remains
- Meta $15B backstop is conditional — only $12B of the $27B headline is firm
Head-to-head
Nebius Group vs CoreWeave — side-by-side scorecard comparison.
More AI Infra companies
Other AI Infra names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: NVIDIA (87/A), Arista Networks (72/B), Astera Labs (61/B).
Next earnings
Nov 10, 2026 · Before open · Expected
Coverage
As of October 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen) · Confidence: High (listed, SEC filings) · Not investment advice — a scholar's assessment.
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.